Quote of the Day

22 Apr

“The real game isn’t, in fact, Darfur or the elections but the maneuvering for a possible new civil war. The last north-south civil war in Sudan ended with a fragile peace in 2005, after some two million deaths. The peace agreement provided for a referendum, scheduled to take place in January, in which southern Sudanese will decide whether to secede. They are expected to vote overwhelmingly to form a separate country.”

– Nicholas Kristof for the NYTimes. Read the full article here.

Do you believe Sudan is headed towards another civil war?

3 Responses to “Quote of the Day”

  1. Mahid (sudanese guardian) April 25, 2010 at 3:18 pm #

    hi there sudanese optimist, i am happy to read your post today and even happier that you are blogging from time to time. i hope that you would blog more and more, i know i was late in reading your blog but i hope the future hold more blog post from your blog. what you pointed out is not only possible but the problem is that many sudanese people that i have talk to about this issue ignore it as if it would not happen. that fact is that civil war might come to hunt the Sudan again but i hope the leaders of the Sudan would look into the past and learn from it. thanks for your post and keep posting, i know i would like to read more.

  2. mohamed ali May 5, 2010 at 4:36 pm #

    Only the dead would dread what could be hope instead.

    Kun jameelan tara lwijuda jameelaa !
    (Be nice for the world to be nice!)

  3. shorbaji August 24, 2010 at 1:01 pm #

    Hi Optimist,

    The question of civil war is as pertinent today as it was when you asked it in April. So here are my two cents.

    I certainly was pessimistic that we are headed almost certainly to civil war.

    Richard Cockett in his recent book “Sudan” presents the case that Nicholas Kristof (as part of a media campaign for Darfur) is actually undermining the prospect of peace. He argues that the biggest risks to a smooth referendum and peace beyond it are:

    1. The NCP further weakening, driven further away from the West and Darfur rebel groups continuing to refuse to negotiate under false hopes of continued international support.
    2. Internal fighting in the South of Sudan

    This idea changed my mind. I am hopeful that we can avoid civil war in the short term. This seems to depend on the NCP & SPLM, as the primary beneficiaries of peace and the status quo, remaining firmly in power and dominate the North & South of Sudan respectively. In that scenario I expect that both parties would choose clinging to power and would then proceed to conveniently split oil wealth and other resources in contested areas.

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